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Interest Rates Outlook

War in Iran increases inflation concerns

Wednesday, 04 March 2026, written by Maarten Spek

The war in Iran is driving up oil prices and uncertainty is elevated. However, the bond market is reacting differently than it did during previous geopolitical shocks. Why? And what does this mean for the interest rate policy of the Fed, ECB and Bank of England?

This report is published: Bi-weekly

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Previous reports

The downside of AI leads to lower interest rates

Wednesday, 18 February 2026

Financial markets are already aggressively pricing in AI’s downsides for many companies; pushing interest rates even lower. Given the breakneck pace of AI development, this pressure is likely here to stay for a while. That’s why we’re adjusting a large part of our rate expectations for the coming months.

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New Fed chair positive for US interest rate markets

Wednesday, 04 February 2026

The prospective new Fed chair has brought relief to the bond markets, but that does not mean that the risk of further increases in long-term yields has diminished...

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American and Japanese threats shake up the interest rate market

Wednesday, 21 January 2026

Concerns about a debt crisis in Japan and the uncertain political and economic climate in the US are leading to capital outflows from America and Japan. Can Europe benefit from this through lower interest rates, or will European long-term rates actually be pushed up?

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Hedging Interest Rates Risks

Rising or falling interest rates can significantly impact your current and future financing costs.

Through our sister company, ICC Consultants, many ECR clients already benefit from independent hedging advice that combines clear strategy with hands‑on execution support.

Whether you face a hedge obligation under your financing arrangements, or simply want stable and predictable cash flows to protect profit margins from volatile interest rates, it’s worth having a conversation with us.

When should you reach out?

  • If you currently rely on your bank alone for hedging, an independent advisor ensures that pricing, strategy, and execution truly work in your best interest.
  • If you already work with an advisor, consider inviting us to provide a competitive quotation — our services are typically more cost‑effective.

With ICC’s interest rate specialists and real‑time pricing systems on your side, you gain full transparency, lower costs, and the confidence that nothing is overlooked and every decision is the best possible.

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