Geopolitical risk is pushing up energy prices — and that is changing FX dynamics. In this update, we show why the dollar is once again becoming the preferred safe haven, how higher energy prices are limiting central banks' room for manoeuvre, and what this means for the major currency pairs in the coming months.

The war in Iran is putting pressure on energy prices, inflation expectations, and central banks. Will the Strait of Hormuz remain open? Should we expect interest rate hikes rather than cuts? And what does this mean for the S&P 500, government bonds, and EUR/USD? This report outlines the market impact of the Iran war in an environment of ongoing uncertainty.

Gold may pause or correct in the near term. However, renewed geopolitical escalation - particularly around Iran - could temporarily push prices toward $5,500. Beyond that, assuming structural debt dynamics and geopolitical risks persist, a move toward $7,000 remains a credible long-term scenario…